Craps Betting | Strategy Errors | Playing Strategy

Common Casino Strategy Errors

About Some Common Errors

If I keep making center bets, sooner or later I’ll get a 30 to 1 payoff and win big.
Yes, you will get a big payoff, but most of the time, you will have lost much more than you won. The 2 and the 12 may pay 30:1, but each of these numbers will appear an average of once in every 36 rolls. The payoff doesn’t begin to compensate for the risk, which gives the house a 13.9% edge. If I haven’t seen a 7 in over ten rolls, wouldn’t the 7 be due and wouldn’t that be a good time to make a online casino bet on Any Seven?
The dice don’t have a brain and don’t contain a memory chip, so there is no way they can know that a 7 hasn’t appeared for a while. The long-term probability of a 7 being thrown is 6 times in 36 rolls, and this probability does not change from roll to roll. If the law of averages was absolute, a 7 would regularly appear once in every six rolls. The fact that this does not happen shows that the dice are actually quite random, and that each roll is an independent event. Consequently, the Any Seven wager has the same chance of winning or losing no matter how often a 7 has appeared or not appeared.
But, doesn’t the law of averages mean that eventually a 7 has to appear more often for the mathematical odds to be correct?
Not really, but even if that were true, the correction might not occur until next week or next year.
Isn’t the Field Bet a good deal because you win on seven numbers and only lose on four?

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At first glance, the field bet might appear to be a smart wager, but if you figure the casino dice combinations, you’ll change your mind. The 2 or 12 can be made one way, the 3 or 11 can be made two ways, the 4 or 10 can be made three ways, and the 9 can be made four ways. This adds up to 16 ways to win. The losing numbers are 5, 6, 7, and 8, which can be made four, five, six, and five ways, respectively, giving you twenty ways to lose. Even with a double payout on the 2 and a double or triple payout on the 12, this is still a poor bet.
If the come-out establishes a number I like, shouldn’t I make a pass bet at that time?
No. You would be much better off making a place bet on that number. If the shooter made his point, the payoff on the late pass bet would be even money, whereas the payoff on an equivalent place bet would be 9:5 on the 4 or 10, 7:5 on the 5 or 9, and 7:6 on the 6 or 8, all of which are better payoffs than even money. I like to hedge my bets. Why don’t you ever discuss the various hedge bets?
Because the space can be used more constructively in other ways. There are dozens of different hedge bets, and almost all of them will increase the combined house edge. There is no combination of craps betting that will give you a lower house edge than a pass bet with odds.
If I’m losing, I like to increase my bets so that I can recoup faster when I start winning.
This is a very bad idea. Since there is no way to know ahead of time when your luck will turn, bigger bets will only cause you to lose faster. Risking more money will not change your luck or change the inherent odds of the game you are playing.
If, I double my wager every time I lose, won’t I eventually recoup all my losses?
This is called a Martingale system and has been around for at least 300 years. It seems to work until you encounter a long losing streak. Then, in an attempt to retrieve your losses, you will run up against the table limit if you don’t run out of money first. Even when starting as low as $5, a doubling system multiplies the amount of the bet very quickly, i.e., $5, $10, $20, $40, $80, $160, $320, $640. I don’t like to memorize odds. Why can’t I just bet on certain numbers by intuition?
There are more bad bets than good bets on a craps layout. If you bet by intuition, you will end up making more bad bets than good ones, and you would be better off playing roulette.